Jordan Peterson once answered when asked his decision-making process regarding a new policy, said that he would not look at the upside, but rather at the downside, the consequences if things do not work out as planned. This goes along with the idea of playing the odds in life; if you follow the basic rules of society, chances are you will come out ahead. On the other hand, if you go against the rules, the odds are that you are not going to do particularly well. In fact, the only time you go against the rules is if the reward is so great that you are willing to face the consequences.
Victor Davis Hanson in his article points out the failures (in most American’s minds) of the Biden administration. It would be fascinating to be able to ask President Biden, or whomever is making these decisions, what exactly do they perceive as the upside of the open border policy, the negating of U.S. energy independence, the upside of inflation, etc. Of course, we shall never really be able to logically understand that type of thinking as it goes against not only the history of our nation, but against the lessons we have learned throughout history.
Oh, to be a fly on the wall when the Administration makes their decisions.
What makes a civilization decline? Is a decline caused by economic or moral faults or do they simply grow old and cannot face the challenges of younger, stronger forces which challenge them? For Britain after World War I, this topic was discussed at various levels of society. Having entered the first world war as a great Empire, within four years the average Brit could see the Anglo colonies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa clamor for more independence while the crown of the jewel, India, began to make small steps towards independence. What were the causes and could such a decline in power be stopped?
Richard Overy, whose outstanding analysis of World War II, Why the Allied Won has once again created a history that is overwhelming in detail and argument. Beginning shortly after the end of World War I, numerous books, pamphlets and debates centered on the decline of Western civilization. These debates were not shallow exercises, but serious discussions as to causes and possible remedies. Going back to Nietzsche who felt that history was cyclical, was civilization, “merely the current expression of man’s futile efforts to fight the reality of decay with the weapons of illusory order.”? If progress was illusional, then the certainties of the 19th century were null and void. Civilizations, according to Nietzsche come and go, rise and fall, are born and die so there was not a great moral lesson to be learned from the decline of the West. Nietzsche’s thesis became the starting point for Oswald Spengler’s The Decline of the West which was hugely popular especially in Germany after the war. Unlike Hegel who saw a progression of history, Spengler’s saw civilizations almost like plants, which rise and fall as part of a great cycle. Spengler listed eight ‘ripe’ cultures, “…from the Chinese through the Indian, antique, Arabian and Western” and that each had a cycle of about 1000 years from birth to death.
I am re-reading Orlando Figes’ (for the third time) excellent The Crimean War and I was struck by the plight of all the soldiers (particularity the British, Russian and Ottoman). The daily trials of poor food, lack of medical facilities, diseases, abuse from officers including whipping enlisted men can make the horrors of actual battle seem less terrible.
In this reading, I have come to realize that alone among armies in the West, the Russian army seems to have consistently been the worse abuser of its own men. From the time of Peter the Great, through the list of Czars, into the First World War, to today, the average Russian soldier has been seen as truly expendable and faceless. With that mindset, we have seen repeatedly the failure of the Russian Empire and today, the ability to field a successful fighting force against a lengthy list of enemies. Yes, the military was effective in WWII, but in face of the brutality of the German opponents and given the total ruthlessness of Stalin and his generals, the average Russian soldier had nothing to lose by throwing himself into the cauldron of war. Throughout history, the Russian soldier has been poorly led, poorly equipped, lacking in logistical support and abused by his own officers. Indeed, such a luxury as a graves unit was virtually unknown. During Czarist times, until WWI, returning soldiers were often not allowed to return to their own villages (to disguise the human losses). When peasants were drafted for the military, their send off was an actual funeral procession while in WWII, when a high Soviet officer was asked about the lack of care for the dead, he is reported to have said that if a man does not return home, it will be assumed he was killed in the war.
The following from Figes’ book captures the pity those soldiers at the time of the Crimean War earned. As Figes writes,
It appears that most of the cost for going “Green” will be paid by the lower and middle classes; rising electricity costs, food costs, inflation, slow job creation, etc. will be placed squarely on the shoulders of those who can least afford them. We are already seeing this and the type of pretzel logic that is used to jam more people into an unworkable timetable based on the dreams of planners who believe they can ignore the realities of the marketplace.
Consider the real-life situations in the article linked below, by Bjorn Lomborg, hardly an eco-Luddite. The inefficiencies of organic farming have hit hard at the nation of Sri Lanka which had been an example of solid “Green” thinking. With falling crop yields, the nation is facing not only political instability, but food shortages while fuel, medicine, and other necessities in part due to their inability to export for hard currency. The solution again is simply to put more land under cultivation which would mean destroying more forests and increased labor hours for the farmers.
Originally published in 1932, this excellent little novel is
still in print, thus testifying to its excellence. A story set in the waning days of the
Austro-Hungarian Empire, the main characters, three individual men, spanning 3
generations face first their sudden leap into the nobility by the grandfather
as a young man, then the solid life of a district bureaucrat of his son and
finally the life of the grandson who is cut out for either the military or the
bureaucracy.
Chicago use to be know as the “city that works” while under the control of the last of the old-time political bosses, Mayor Richard J. Daley from 1953-1976. Personally honest, he created a patronage system and managed to balance the greed of his cronies, the demands of the teachers’ unions, the civil rights community and collaborated with the interests of big business to remake much of the Chicago landscape while other cities such as New York, Detroit, etc., began their long slide into disaster. With his passing, the power of his machine began to decline and after him, a series of weak, ineffectual Mayors managed to lose control of the city. Certainly the city was not perfect, but for the average citizen, the city seemed to be on the right course.
Today, Chicago is a city in chaos; murder and crime rates have reached record highs, the teachers union dictates educational policies while test scores are in free fall and the city is in debt as services are cut and the middle class flees for other cities and states.
The attached article from Imprimis points out how Chicago has followed other cities in manipulating statistics in a deliberate attempt to mislead the public. This is not unique to Chicago by any means and is happening in your own city. How is this possible?
One reason is that during the reign of Mayor Daley, there was a strong, independent press which was willing to take the mayor, his cronies, and his policies to task. Real journalists such as Mike Royko, Alex Dreyer and others who took immense joy in lampooning the powers that be in Chicago. Yet, despite their barbed words, I believe they felt that Mayor Daley was working for the people of the city.
It is hard to believe that today’s power managers in Chicago have the best interests of average citizens at heart. How can they when they manipulate crime numbers such as:
Killings on the cities expressways (freeways) are not included in city statistics as the expressways are not under the city’s authority (unless you are speeding in which case the Chicago police will act)
According to records, only 147 felony defendants were released in one fifteen-month period when the actual number was 400% higher
To make the numbers look better, County Chief Judge Timothy Evans failed to count at “at least six different felony crime categories as felonies.”
The list goes on and on and a close examination of crime numbers in your city may show the same type of duplicity by officials.
Finally, the article addresses issued which is so carefully ignored, births by single women. It is well known that broken homes are in neighborhoods with the highest murder rates. There are numerous studies that show that children, especially boys born into single parent households suffer the most from lack of education, earn less as adults and have a higher rate of incarceration.
The truth can be ugly, and the answer has been shown is not in additional money. We spend more than ever on education but test scores and reading levels continue to decline. Despite the best efforts of the police, the unwillingness to punish the criminals only leads to more death and destruction in the poorest neighborhoods (in 2021 Chicago police took over 12,000 guns off the streets but we know that we have not locked up 12,000 criminals for illegal possession).
There is not easy set of answers but the combination of lack of moral leadership, and lack of accountability over the past years has led a once proud city that worded into a dead end that is costing the lives and futures of tens of thousands.
I hope you will indulge me as I have put together a rather lengthy recap of our latest vacation. Why? Well, hopefully you will pick up a few tips, ideas, etc to help you have a great vacation. Why learn the hardway? So feel free to read as much as you care (or can bear) and I hope you pick up a tip or two!
ABOUT COVIDMany people have asked me about how the threat of Covid was handled during a long trip. Here is how it was handled aside from the normal airline requirements: 1) The cruise line would only allow passengers who had two regular vaccinations plus a booster. 2) Proof of #1 was required before boarding, as was proof of no covid within the previous 24 hours.3) All crew members had a covid test at least 3 times a week4) Free covid tests were provided by the cruise line to any passenger5) When leaving the ship, some ports required proof of vaccinations but not all6) When leaving the ship at the final port, all passengers had to be tested (free, on board) for covid. 7) If anyone had a positive covid test during the cruise, they were quarantined in a separate section of the ship and their former room was thoroughly disinfected by a crew in hazed suits8) Each country had its own requirements, re wearing a mask indoors, etc. Italy still requires masks indoors until May 1st. We were on a ship for over three weeks with over 2,000 staff and guests, visited 13 ports in several countries, visited a very crowded Venice for six days and suffered no problems. That is all I say.
With the easing of regulations regarding Covid, Carolyn and I decided to take a twenty-six-day cruise from Miami to Trieste, Italy and then to spend five nights in Venice. This trip would be different as we would be crossing the Atlantic on the Oceania cruise ship, Marina as opposed to a true ocean liner like the Queen Mary II which we enjoyed in December. The Marina is still a large ship at over 70,000 tons, but the crew to guest ratio is about 1.5 to 1 which is excellent in terms of service and care. We had sailed with Oceania several times before and found their food to be excellent, well above the norm, and the staff and ships to be outstanding. The ships are smaller and cater to an older clientele (not a cruise if you have children, pets or expect a lively nightlife). It is a great cruise line if you want to get away from the cares and woes of an outrageous fortune.
The cruise industry has been closed for two years but with the re-opening, so many of the staff which hails from about seventeen countries was eager to return to work. The staff on Oceania is always a cut above, but you could feel and hear how happy they were to return to work. Yes, of course they are happy to find steady work, but they are also happy in the way they are treated by the cruise line. Talking to crew members, especially those who have worked on other lines, they comment on how well they are treated by management regarding pay, work breaks, and time off. Even though the crew had to wear masks (they were not mandatory for guests), their voices and eyes were smiling, providing a real welcoming to the passengers.
What is wrong with this picture? An individual to help mold the minds and values of children is caught in a swindle regarding the achievements of the children he is there to help. Instead of firing him quickly, to make an example of him to the children, he is awarded a multi-year contract that will pay him nearly $2,000,000.
A system that operates like this, which rewards a thief and liar is in major trouble. At the very least, the teachers and their union should demand this type of reward for bad actions. We always hear the teacher’s union yelling about how what they do is “for the children.” Then why not take a strong stand and demand his expulsion without pay from their ranks. And those folks at the local DOE are examples of why the average citizen looks on distain at government bureaucracies. Is there a more glaring case of lack of leadership, morals and doing what is best “for the children.”
It appears that the old saying that “crime does not pay” only applies to the taxpayers but not to those who are entrusted to help create well educated future citizens with solid values. What a shame.
Bloodlands, Timothy Snyder’s monumental work has been complimented by Black Earth, The Holocaust as History and Warning. I must admit that I was initially put from this book due to numerous reviews which seemed to focus on one small portion of this work, that of trying to link the lessons of the Holocaust to climate change. Such a premise held no interest to me as the horrors documented in Bloodlands was the result of conscious decisions by political systems which denied the basic humanity of mankind, whereas the arguments re: climate change are open to sloppy science at the worse as well as subject to hyperbole (we only have twelve years left) which undercut the actual science.
Given the reviews, rather than purchase the book as I would do with any Snyder book, I found it during a cruise in the ship’s library. I was wonderfully surprised that ninety-eight percent of the book was an excellent historical work which consolidated and exposed many forgotten historical facts as well as providing a key analysis between the goals and policies of Hitler’s Germany, Poland and the Soviet Union not only leading up to the Holocaust but also the misconceptions of those three powers and how they impacted the course of history.
For years, Hitler’s Germany attempted to woo Poland into an alliance which would result in a joint German-Polish invasion of the Soviet Union; the goal was the fulfillment of Hitler’s dream of Lebensraum but also (as the Poles realized) making Poland a client state of Germany. For Stalin, the eliminate of Poland was key, in large part due to the Soviet’s defeat by the Poles in 1921 and Stalin’s part in the defeat, and to create a bigger buffer against Germany. For the Poles, caught between two more powerful neighbors, the key was to play one off against the other by having non-aggression pacts with both Germany and the Soviet Union.
Robert Harris, the author of Fatherland has taken a key event in the history of France and created a novel that is a thriller and educational. Written from the perspective of a key player in the events, the reader is drawn into a world of the “deep state” before the term was used. It serves to remind us that those who have power seldom are ready to relinquish it, especially when they know no other life and possess no other skills that those they have acquired in the acquisition of their power.
After their loss to Germany in the war of 1870, the French nation was torn between a paranoid fear of another German attack (a preventative war) and the French desire for revenge. France, which had always been the predominant military land power on the continent was humiliated; it was other people’s lands which were despoiled and looted, not the sacred soil of France!
To achieve their desire for revenge, which included repossessing the key provinces of Alsace and Lorraine which the French had taken from the Germans centuries before, the French military was lavished with money and prestige. They represented the honor of France and stood for the glory which had to be taken back from the new German empire.
In 1895, a Jewish officer of the General Staff was convicted in a secret military trial of passing secrets to the Germans. Sentenced to life on Devil’s Island, he was isolated from the world; his wardens were not allowed to speak to him, he was chained to his bed at night, his view restricted by high wooden fences, his mail restricted and censored, his was a living hell of a punishment, especially for a man convicted on forged evidence.
The rest of the story is well known, how another French officer by the name of Picquart gradually comes to realize that the prisoner, Alfred Dreyfus is innocent of the charges and that Major Esterhazy was in fact the real traitor. Shocked by the injustice done to Dreyfus, Picquart reports his findings to the army powers that be only to find out that they had known of the injustice but had decided that to save the “honor” of the army, nothing was to be done. In fact, new evidence was “discovered” which further condemned Dreyfus. What follows is an example of a handful of brave men including Picquart who fight against powerful forces within the government who use every tool at their disposal including humiliation, intimidation, and violence to cover up their crime against Dreyfus. What is the importance of one man against the needs of the State?
In this excellent novel, we see nobility in the acts and courage of a man willing to lose all in the pursuit of justice. We see prejudice in the antisemitism of France at that time. We also see courage, fear, and determination, not in fictional characters, but in those who lived these trying events. I can see readers finishing the novel and wondering which of those traits they would possess in a time of trials.
With a Masters Degree in Guerrilla Warfare and Totalitarianism, Mr. Klazura was well prepped for a career in Sales and General Management, consulting on corporate startups and turnarounds as well as lecturing on history and politics. For the past twenty years he has focused on being a financial advisor and consulting.
