Since the outbreak of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, Western leaders have followed a strategy of providing the Ukrainians enough weapons and support to hold the Russians at bay but not enough to defeat the invaders. The reason is that the West is concerned with what Putin might do if backed into a situation where he is facing defeat; would he go nuclear or unleash some biological weapon? If he did, would such a response be limited to the area of the Ukraine or would he in a fit of anger, target NATO members? While Putin may appear to be unstable or not have a grasp of reality to some, he has been highly successful in keeping the Western nations at bay while increasing his influence with other nations who are not in the immediate area. All the while, the people of the Ukraine bleed to death while attempting to keep the Russian forces at bay, while hoping for a change in Russian leadership. A strategy of attrition by the West using someone else’s blood.
Unlike the West, Putin is not afraid to increase the pressure on his opponents as the latest cuts in natural gas deliveries to Germany show. From his reading of, in this case, German leadership, Putin believes he has the upper hand in dealing with Germany. While Germany has delivered various munitions to the Ukraine, it has been at a leisurely pace as exhibited by the time it has taken for three Gepard air defense units to be delivered which they agreed to provide in April. The question, given the latest gas cuts to Germany, is if German leadership will be able to withstand popular concern about sufficient gas supplies in the coming winter and if the damage to the German economy will be acceptable. Will the Germans bend to Putin and draw back support for the Ukraine in return for increased natural gas deliveries or will the Germans be pushed too far and finally realize that the devil’s pact they made years ago regarding Russian gas and going “green” is one which has too high a price?
For years, Merkel dithered and kicked the can down the road so that when she left, the new leadership would be forced to face the results of her policies. If the German leadership gives into Putin, their standing in the world will plummet and who would want them as an ally? On the other hand, standing up to Putin would take a type of leader that the Germans have not produced in decades.
The attached article provides some of the hard facts faced not only by the Germans, but by politicians who are suddenly having to face hard facts. It should be interesting to watch how this plays out.
https://quillette.com/2022/07/14/germanys-energy-catastrophe/
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