The Thucydides’s Trap is when a rising poser threatens to displace an existing one. This phenomenon began during the Peloponnesian War which lasted for decades and lead to the victory of a weakened Sparta over the devastated Athens.
Since that time, there have been sixteen cases of the same type since then and in twelve cases the result has been war. Some of the cases are easy to recognize, such as Japan vs. the U.S. in the Pacific, or the rise of Germany vs. the U.K. after 1900, while others are more distant such as the Dutch Republic vs. Great Britain during the mid- to late 17th century. The three most recent cases when no war was the result was between the U.K./France vs. Germany for political influence in Europe, the Cold War and surprisingly, the rise of the U.S. and the perceived threat to the U.K. during the early 20th Century.
The first third of the book is a devastating review of the rise of modern China; it’s huge growth in GDP, the strength of its economy, the expansion of its military, etc. as compared to the sluggish performance of the U.S. Despite the “pivot” in American foreign policy under President Obama, little of concrete value has been achieved; the North Koreans have more arms, the Chinese have claim more of the sea and built numerous “island” which contrary to their promise, they have militarized, and our “allies” have been forced to bend to Chinese demands through the use of their great economic power in the region.
