The Origins of the Democrats DefeatFirst published in 1942 in Italy, Luigi Albertini’s The Origins of the War of 1914 traced the political, diplomatic, and military causes of the war, going back to the consequences of the compromise between Austria and Hungary in 1867. He took the reader step by step along a path that ended in that war. The way he laid out the events in Europe, one can see with the advantage of hindsight how so many European decisions naturally led to war. When one finishes the book, one is forced to look at one’s own life while analyzing one’s successes and failings.
Today in the United States, there is much discussion over the causes of the victory by Trump and the defeat not only of Harris, but the major shift within the Democratic bloc. In looking for the causes of Harris’ defeat, numerous reasons are offered but seldom condensed into a simple, logical path to defeat. Using the system laid out by Albertini, let us consider if you will, the following steps which if viewed objectively, should have told the Democrats that they were setting up their own defeat even as they made their decisions.
1) The election victory of the Democrats of 2020: In that election, the victor was a weak, seventy-eight-year-old Joe Biden, a man who was already suffering from mental and physical weakness. He promised, recognizing his weakness, that he would be a one term President. Like Hillary Clinton before him, he was not so much nominated as chosen by the Democratic powers that be as it was “his time.” He was, according to the party, the best they had to offer.
2) Pick of a Vice President: Being a good Democrat, the President Elect chose as his Vice President, a Black female who represented the far left of the party. This painted the Democratic party into a cornet, for if Biden were to honor his pledge, his Vice President would have to be the acknowledge front runner in four years. If she were not, for any reason, the Black wing of the party would be outraged and endanger the 2024 election. Worse still, if she did not perform, she could not be jettisoned without alienating the party’s Black people. It was contingent on her to perform and do her job in a way that would allow the party to go into the 2024 election with confidence.
3) Lying to the public: As President Biden’s mental wellbeing went downhill, the truth could not be allowed to be known. Fortunately, the legacy media and much of the cable media was willingly co-opted to go along with keeping the secret. The President’s weekly visits to Delaware were represented as “working” weekends and the public was told that the President was strong, sure and at his peak. In reality, the Democratic party hoisted upon the citizens a weak man whose record as Robert Gates once said, “He has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades,” This put the American people in danger as Iran, China, Russia and others saw a leader who was weak and who believed that appeasement was a positive strategy.
4) A broken promise: Despite his weakness, President Biden decided to seek a second term. The party was in a dilemma: how long could Biden’s mental and physical weakness be concealed from the public? He could not repeat his campaign of 2020 which was often referred to as the “basement” strategy. Somehow Biden had to be protected.
5) The debate: The house of cards collapsed with the Presidential debate with Trump. In a few minutes, the truth of Biden’s weakness could not be concealed any longer and overnight the polls pointed to a disastrous 2024 election.
6) The Putsch: The powers that be in the Democratic party decided that they had to find a way to save the 2024 election. Their answer was the first Putsch in American history: get Biden to reverse his decision and place his Vice President, Kamala Harris in his stead. Yet only a few short weeks before there were discussions of how to replace Harris with someone who could be shown as a staunch support of a weak Biden. It had been recognized that nationally, Harris was viewed even more negatively than Biden and she brought little of positive worth to the ticket. Yet to try to replace her as the Democratic candidate would all but destroy the Black vote in the party’s coalition. The cost of DEI was coming home to roost and the party had extraordinarily little time to market Harris.
7) The Election: Despite over a billion dollars of campaign spending, Harris was not able to “close the deal.” Her total misreading of the public mood and experience of the Biden administration was shown when she said that she could not think of a single thing she would do differently. Yet at the same time she was marketing herself as the agent of change, the one who wanted to start a new page. A new page of what? If she would not do anything different than Biden, what was she changing? The campaign was a dead-end of contradictions and hype. At that point, the Democrats could have saved a lot of money if they had just admitted defeat.
My intention is not to go over all of the policy decisions made during the Biden administration that led to the highest inflation in forty years, the weakening of the U.S. militarily and diplomatically, the relentless push for an energy policy that is inefficient and too expensive, the perceived use of lawfare against an opponent, the inability to track 300,000 immigrant children who were entrusted to “authorized personnel”, etc. Rather, we are, like Albertini to view, in hindsight what political decisions turned a victory into a defeat in an amazingly brief period of time.
It is now up to the Democratic party to realize that it was their decision in 2019-2020 that all but assured their defeat in 2024. When an administration starts with a lie, such as the excellent health of the candidate, it is acting like a child or teenager who lies, hoping that tomorrow and the truth will never come. The central lie that was sold, held within itself the very seeds of its own destruction, and should be a lesson for all of us to learn.